First: I swear that it was never my intention to turn this into a political blog. But let's face it--I'm an intensely opinionated law student with a passion for philosophy, which makes politics something of a triple threat. So, this being an election year (and the election being so very soon), I'll beg your patience. Come November 5th I should be able to focus a little better on other things.

Second: Here is an excellent explanation of why the bailout is a Very Bad Idea^TM by someone who actually understands this stuff.

So! How 'bout that Dow Jones Industrial Average! Worst point drop in history today, closing about 777 points down (still into the five figures, though--I remember that celebration). This is a meltdown long in the making (not to mention predicting, and predicting), and if the bailout fails on reconsideration (we should be so lucky!), expect another similar drop. The most pessimistic estimate I've heard today was 1500 points.

That's a lot of points.

Expect the politicians, the media, and corporate propaganda machines across the country to throw it into high gear overnight. They want this money, and they want it bad. Even Warren Buffet came out swinging for his rich buddies. I heard some very strong words from some very upset investors on CNN today--threats, basically, that if Wall Street gets hosed, so does Main Street. They're desperate.

They're desperate, and I'm not buying their rhetoric.

I'm not an economist. But economics is a "social science," which is a generous way of saying it's not really a science in any meaningful sense of the word. There is nothing even approaching epistemic or experimental certainty in the realm of economics. We don't even know that the $700b being discussed will actually fix the problems with America's economy.

The thing is, as near as I can tell, the worst-case-scenario on nixing the bailout is better than the best-case-scenario on passing it! Ron Paul's take is quite interesting. Even if the bailout does what it's supposed to do, the long-term result is massive inflation. George Bush broke out the fearmongering with threats that "your retirement is at stake," a dubious claim at best (especially for the large minority of Americans who have no retirement!). But if inflation devalues our currency, what good is your 401(k)? So in effect, best case scenario, the bailout just defers things for a couple of years.

Well, that's not all bad, right? After all, if we give the economy a few years to limp along, maybe things will improve and we'll be better positioned to solve this mess. But before Iraq and the economy stole the show, Social Security was a major concern, what with the Baby Boomers reaching retirement age. You remember that? Yeah, we never solved that problem. And guess what? It's going to be a bigger problem later, like 5-10 years from now. So deferring our economic woes may not be the brightest idea we've ever had.

On the other hand, we could enter a serious recession--even a depression!--if the bailout doesn't pass. Home prices would likely plummet. Unemployment could soar. The credit freeze would make it difficult to do business. The Wall Street yahoos who caused this mess (and their willing accomplices, home buyers who bought luxury items with equity loans) will find that it is time to pay the piper. I have to admit that doesn't hurt my feelings much. Improvident investing, like improvident living should come with consequences. Overconsumption should not be rewarded with my tax money. With most welfare programs... even when it isn't entirely true, I can at least pretend that my money is supporting someone who got dealt a bad hand--who needs government assistance by virtue of their birth, their upbringing, something at least ostensibly beyond their control. The people being bailed out in this case chose to do everything wrong and, worse, never expected to suffer for their mistakes. Heck, the media did a great job convincing everyone that it wasn't a mistake! Equity loans were made for boat buying!

That's the free market. That's the forest fire, clearing the detritus to make room for new growth. That's the rich getting poorer, and the poor getting richer. That's me, next year, selling my small house at a modest gain (or even, perhaps, a small loss) and buying a much nicer, much bigger house for a more reasonable price. A sluggish economy is good for some things, like providing for my family. I'm totally comfortable with that.

But in the first scenario, the inflation scenario? We all get poorer. No one wins; a handful of guys at the top of the heap just get to stay at the top of a slightly smaller heap; a receding tide that beaches all boats. Funny how quickly our most avowed capitalists make the switch to communism the moment things aren't operating in their favor.

I have my share of doubts about the so-called "free market." There are times when I wonder if certain aspects of socialism aren't more equitable in modern approaches to government. And I'm no great lover of consistency for its own sake; if these once-capitalists have learned their lesson and are ready to don communist red, by all means, let them. But that's not what's going on. We're not experiencing a paradigm shift. We're doing the same thing we've done for decades: placing the wishes of faceless, irresponsible corporate entities before the needs of the people. We're looking out for the big guy first and the little guy last. Whether we're talking about socialism or capitalism, the problem is really a government that measures success in terms of dollars rather than in terms of human experience. We all remember how communism "destroyed" Russia, but we never talk about how capitalism destroyed it first (go read Dostoevsky if you don't understand this).

In other words, to bowdlerize Alan Moore's Rorschach: it's not the economy, stupid. It's us. Only us.

It's whether we're going to learn from our mistakes, endure the consequences, and come out the other side a better nation for our trials... or compound our mistakes by going down with the ship we're on, insisting all the while:

"We're not sinking; the tide is rising!"

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P.S. Failure of the bill has led to serious partisan finger-pointing, which is awesome. The angrier they get, the less likely this will go anywhere. Thank goodness for government gridlock (Protecting American Liberty Since 1787!^TM).